CAPITAL-IMPACT INTELLIGENCE OS

Audience & Market Intelligence

The 37.3% question.

Planet Rock's deck projects 37.3% of attendance-days foreign; our recompute lands at 37.5% — effectively the same, and all of it rests on one thing: whether 30,000 foreigners walk in, and stay both days.

Planet Rock projects 30,000 foreign visitors. As bodies attending a single day, that's 18.75% of the 160,000-attendance-day gate. As attendance-days with every foreign visitor staying both days, it's 37.5% (30,000 × 2 ÷ 160,000) — and Planet Rock's deck projects 37.3%, fractionally lower. Same people, same target, two units. The number that matters isn't which fraction prints — it's whether 30,000 foreigners actually walk in, and stay both days.

Jakarta's Hammersonic, the region's most successful rock festival, converts 20–25% foreign by headcount — and Planet Rock's 18.75% headcount share sits just under that ceiling. The stretch is in attendance-days: the two-day foreign target assumes every foreign visitor attends both days, roughly 1.6× the regional ceiling on that basis. A debut festival typically runs 90% or more local, so that two-day foreign assumption is the real exposure — in year one.

That target is possible, but exposed. A lineup announcement and regional ad buy will not close it; conversion depends on whether every one of six markets is reached on the right channel, in the right language, at the right moment.

MODELED
Target — 30,000 foreign × RM2,813 (~USD 599)≈ RM84M (~USD 17.9M)
Debut floor — 16,000 foreign × RM2,813 (~USD 599)≈ RM45M (~USD 9.6M)
The gap≈ RM39M (~USD 8.3M)

RM2,813 (~USD 599) = Malaysia foreign-visitor average, Tourism Malaysia 2024. Debut floor = 10% foreign, the optimistic ceiling for a first-year festival. MODELED.

That is the distance between the projection and the gate. This page identifies the exposure.

37.3% ATTENDANCE-DAYS UNIT The target 30,000 foreign visitors — Planet Rock's own projection.
20–25% HEADCOUNT UNIT The proven ceiling Hammersonic, Jakarta — established, 140k. The best in the region.
90%+ local HEADCOUNT UNIT The debut reality
MODELED
A first-year festival typically runs 90% or more local. A 10% foreign share is the optimistic ceiling.

The target is sound, but it sits at 1.6× the proven regional ceiling — and nearly 4× the debut norm. In revenue terms, the distance between the debut floor and the two-day foreign target is roughly RM39M (~USD 8.3M) in foreign-visitor spend (RM84M (~USD 17.9M) target less RM45M (~USD 9.6M) debut floor).

That gap doesn't close with a lineup and an ad buy. It closes — or doesn't — on whether all six markets are reached on the right channel, in the right language, at the right moment. This is the exposure to manage.

MODELED GAP MODELED

30,000 foreign or 100,000 local — where does the marketing ringgit work hardest? Two reads of the same gate.

Y1 deep-dive cost USD 233K · Modeled exposure floor USD 6.6M · ~28× cost of avoidance.